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Download Anatomy of the Bear epub book
ISBN:1906659451
Author: Russell Napier
ISBN13: 978-1906659455
Title: Anatomy of the Bear
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ePUB size: 1570 kb
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Language: English
Category: Investing
Publisher: Harriman House; 2nd Revised edition edition (May 1, 2009)
Pages: 330

Anatomy of the Bear by Russell Napier



I then read all the Wall Street Journal's two months either side of the stock market bottom. The aim is to see whether the four bottoms had anything in common that would help us identify the next 'great bottom'.

Tom Stevenson, The Daily Telegraph. an outstanding 'must-read' for any student of financial markets" - Marc Faber, author of Tomorrow's Gold.

Anatomy of the Bear book. How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future.

How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance.

After studying law, he began his investment career at Baillie Gifford in Edinburgh managing funds in the Japanese, then the US and finally the Asian markets. Moving to London he was responsible for managing Asian portfolios. This one is specific to the four big Bear markets of the last century. The author goes through each one as an example. He identifies each stage and has clippings from the markets on peoples sentiment.

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He believes that the run-up in the markets we have seen since 2009 is merely a bear. He believes that the run-up in the markets we have seen since 2009 is merely a bear market rally. The inexorable pressure from rising consumption in China and increasing retirement in the . augurs deflation and thus can unleash the force that will push equities to valuation levels associated with the bear market bottoms of 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. p. 13). August 1921, July 1932, June 1949, and August 1982: four summer bottoms. The four market bottoms in this book are the only occasions when equities were at more than a 70% discount to replacement value.

Read full description of the books: How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Why are you asking to write a phone number? Like Reply.

How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 - Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analysing every article in the ""Wall Street Journal"" from either side of the market bottom. In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging. By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best financial provisions for the future. This new edition includes a brand new preface from the author.
Reviews: 7
GoodLike
This book is worth its weight in all the stocks you own. If you manage your own portfolio as I do, you are probably very interested in what the market is likely to be up to six months or a year down the road, especially when we are in a bear market. I want to know when to reinvest in the market to catch those first explosive bull rallies that signal the end of the bear. This book is an instruction manual that tells what to look for and where to find the information that tells this. Nothing in investing is a sure thing as nothing that involves dealing with the future is a sure thing. Considering that, this book is as close as it gets to showing how to read the clues the bear gives when it is getting ready for hibernation once again, and the ole' bull is again sniffing around Wall Street.

If, on the other hand we are in a bull market and you want to know when the bear is on its way, I suggest "Winning on Wall Street" by Martin Zweig, also an instruction manual. Put these two books right up there with your subscriptions to Value Line, Morningstar.com, The Wall Street Journal, and Barron's and you have a substantial set of tools for navigating the business cycles.

These books are instruction manuals for seasoned investors; folks who have been through at least one complete business cycle and have lost money to the bear. They are for folks who have developed an investment plan and are able to stay the course. They are not intended for those who rely on brokers and do not participate in their own portfolio's management. They are not light reading but they are extraordinarily interesting.
Zavevidi
This book is rare in that it examines the four greatest bear market bottoms that would have made you the most money if you would have entered them at the right time, instead of the endless books out that show how to buy the hottest stocks in a perpetual bull market. What I like about this book is that the author stays away from his own opinions and simply shows the facts by examining the Wall Street Journal articles during each of these periods, August 1921, July 1932, June 1949, and August 1982. These were the actual bottoms when the market finally began to reverse. You will surprising see that unlike common Wall Street myths the bottom is not when things are the worse and everyone has a negative outlook, actually the WSJ article show that there was hope of a turn around, volume had dried up, P/E ratios were obviously absurdly low, and car sales were beginning to pick up. You will do very well to buy and read this book and add its information to your arsenal of trading and investing. While most of us sit out bear markets to keep our gains it is very important to know when to buy back in for the next up leg, this book can help you do just that.
Amis
Another classic of this type is "Manias Panics and Crashes".

This one is specific to the four big Bear markets of the last century. The author goes through each one as an example. He identifies each stage and has clippings from the markets on peoples sentiment. Shows pricings and looks for what was the best indicator at the bottom. There is no hype, predictions, or false systems in this book. It's more presenting information and presenting patterns that occured.

All the bears follow similar patterns where there is froth, leverage, money sloshing around and everything is priced up a bit. Then some triggering event happens and people either re-evaluate or are forced to change their minds on valuations. Prices drop until they hit a bottom. Things uptrend for a while even though the news is still bad.... The author goes over each bear and how it's the same and how it's different.

Until reading this book, I did not understand or even think about using commodity prices as a leading indicator. Did not know that the stock market turned up before the economy did. Did not know that the great depression involved multiple stages, an international banking crisis, and a late move to gold.

After reading this book, now when I see someone on the TV saying that "They've never seen anything like this before" about LTCM, Bear Strerns, or the price of oil or gold... I have a better perspective. When someone tells me that "the market has definately found bottom" or "Can't go down from here"... I kind of chuckle now.

I do know that when people say "This is a great time to buy stocks..." they often don't know what they're talking about, or they're making it up.

If the credit crisis worsens this year, this summer or the next may be the best buying opportunity in the US stock market in the last 30 years. Hopefully what I've read will be some help. Every downturn is different, and Banks/Fed/Investors act differently each time based on past exp and history... It may be that we've already hit bottom... It may be that nothing in this book will call the next bottom... Only time will tell.

Many won't read this book because it doesn't say "Get RICH QUICK" on the front... LOL
Fesho
Found the book very helpful towards getting smarter on the history of financial markets in the US.

But the central message and packaging of the book is a bit confusing. I don't think one can read this book and really get to the central promise - identifying the bottom of a market. In trying to get to this perhaps over-reaching goal, the book only partially achieves what it is truly good at - financial history - which is perhaps a step towards getting towards the ultimate goal.

The information in this book on stock market levels in the last 100 years and their relationship to corporate profit growth, inflation and other macro economic factors is still extremely insightful and would recommend this book as a read for that reason alone. The same book perhaps re-written as a history of the financial markets in the US would however (my opinion anyway) be infinitely more useful. Especially because I have yet to find any readable book for the lay audience (not financial historians) that does adequate justice to such a key topic.